Studying the Eradication of Ebola through the Propagation Modelling and Vaccine Delivery Evaluation

Ebola is a disease of humans and other primates caused by Ebola viruses. This disease has a high risk of death, killing between 25 and 90 percent of those infected, with an average of about 50 percent. Ebola has become one of the most horrible threats to human beings. In this paper, we develop accurate propagation model of Ebola in order to understand its spread dynamics. In the modeling, human beings are of three exclusive states: ‘Susceptible’, ‘Infected’ and ‘Recovered’. We evaluate the proposed model according to Ebola’s data published by WHO. The experiment results suggest that our model can accurately present the Ebola propagation dynamics in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. We further study the optimal vaccine delivery strategies in order to restrain the outbreaks of Ebola. When human beings are in short of vaccines, the proposed model analyses the delivery destination, the tendency of Ebola’s propagation, locations of medical centers and labs, and the conditions of patients. According to Ebola’s data from WHO, the model identifies seven cities as the optimal venues to start the vaccine delivery. The work in this paper greatly benefits the eradication of Ebola when it outbreaks in our society.